照常情景的定義及其對減緩努力評價的影響

氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (4): 272-277.

照常情景的定義及其對減緩努力評價的影響

滕飛^1,2

1 清華大學能源環(huán)境經(jīng)濟研究院;
2 清華大學現(xiàn)代管理研究中心

收稿日期:2011-10-18 修回日期:2012-04-24 出版日期:2012-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-07-30
通訊作者: 滕飛 E-mail:tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn

Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impact on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts

Fei teng

Received:2011-10-18 Revised:2012-04-24 Online:2012-07-30 Published:2012-07-30
Contact: Fei teng E-mail:tengfei@tsinghua.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 發(fā)展中國家排放的“照常情景”是氣候變化研究及談判中的焦點問題。目前對“照常情景”有不同的定義，本文分析了這些定義的異同，并指出不同定義的主要區(qū)別在于如何確定排放預測的起始點，也即“照常情景”的“基年”問題。部分國際機構采取的“照常情景”定義低估了發(fā)展中國家在“照常情景”下的排放路徑，進而低估了發(fā)展中國家的減緩努力。建議采用固定基年的“無措施情景”來定義“照常情景”，以設定客觀的評價基準，公平地評價發(fā)展中國家的減緩努力。

關鍵詞: 照常情景, 基準情景, 減緩努力評價

Abstract: Business as usual (BAU) scenario has been a debated issue during climate change negotiation. This paper introduces different definitions of BAU and points out that the major difference among different definitions is how to set the starting point of BAU projection, so called the “base year” of BAU. Some international institutions used “existing policy scenarios” to project the BAU trajectory of developing countries. Such a definition will lead to an underestimate of the BAU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimate of mitigation efforts. This paper suggests to use the “without policy scenario” with a fixed base year as the definition of BAU, this definition will set an objective benchmark for assessing the mitigation efforts of developing countries.

Key words: business as usual, baseline scenario, assessment of mitigation effort

滕飛. 照常情景的定義及其對減緩努力評價的影響[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2012, 8(4): 272-277.

Fei teng. Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impact on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts[J]. Climate Change Research, 2012, 8(4): 272-277.

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