基于聚類分析的碳強度目標分解研究

氣候變化研究進展 ?? 2012, Vol. 8 ?? Issue (4): 278-284.

基于聚類分析的碳強度目標分解研究

楊源¹, 蔡聞佳¹, 王燦¹, 王思強^1,2

1 清華大學環(huán)境學院;
2 國家能源局

收稿日期:2011-10-31 修回日期:2012-04-17 出版日期:2012-07-30 發(fā)布日期:2012-07-30
通訊作者: 蔡聞佳 E-mail:caiwj05@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金資助:
國家科技支撐計劃

Regional Allocation of CO₂ Intensity Reduction Targets Based on Cluster Analysis

Received:2011-10-31 Revised:2012-04-17 Online:2012-07-30 Published:2012-07-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于地區(qū)聚類分析得到了我國2020年碳強度目標分解方案。根據(jù)各地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟能力、排放水平和減排潛力上的相似程度，將我國30個省區(qū)分成6類。按照公平原則，經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達的第1、2類地區(qū)減排目標最高，分別為55%和65%，但是其減排潛力較小；按照效率原則，減排潛力較大的第3、5類地區(qū)減排目標最高，分別為48%和61%，但是其經(jīng)濟相對落后；綜合分解方案顯示減排潛力最大的第5類地區(qū)，以及屬于工業(yè)與排放大省的第2、3類地區(qū)的減排目標最高，分別為54%、49%和49%。而在這3種分解方案下，經(jīng)濟能力、排放水平與減排潛力都較低的第4類與第6類地區(qū)減排指標最高不超過40%。經(jīng)濟能力與減排潛力在空間上存在一定程度的錯位，導致僅通過碳強度目標的分解無法較好地兼顧公平與效率，還需要建立配套的市場機制和政策工具。

關(guān)鍵詞: 碳強度目標分解, 聚類分析, 地區(qū)差異

Abstract: To meet China’s CO₂ intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis was developed. The 30 provinces were classified into 6 groups based on economy, emission and reduction potential indicators. Under equity principle, the two most developed groups are assigned the highest reduction targets (55% and 65% respectively), however their reduction potential is limited. Under efficiency principle, the 2 groups with highest reduction potential take the highest targets (48% and 61% respectively), but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with prominent reduction potential takes the highest target (54%), and the 2nd and 3rd groups with large industry scale take the second highest target (49%). Whereas under the 3 allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and 6th group, which have relatively low economic ability, emission and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic ability and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanism and policy instrument should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.

Key words: CO₂ intensity reduction target allocation, cluster analysis, regional difference

中圖分類號:

X 22

楊源蔡聞佳王燦王思強. 基于聚類分析的碳強度目標分解研究[J]. 氣候變化研究進展, 2012, 8(4): 278-284.

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