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      氣候變化研究進(jìn)展 ?? 2009, Vol. 5 ?? Issue (05): 255-259.

      ? 研究論文 ? 上一篇    下一篇

      對喜馬拉雅山脈中段6個(gè)臺站的氣候變化分析

      張核真1,邊巴次仁1,唐小萍2,馬鵬飛2,路紅亞2   

      1. 1. 西藏自治區氣候中心2. 西藏自治區氣象局氣候中心
      • 收稿日期:2008-12-19 修回日期:2009-02-17 出版日期:2009-09-30 發(fā)布日期:2009-09-30
      • 通訊作者: 張核真

      Analysis of Climate Change over the Six Stations of Middle Himalayas During 1971-2007

      • Received:2008-12-19 Revised:2009-02-17 Online:2009-09-30 Published:2009-09-30

      摘要: 利用喜馬拉雅山脈中段南、北兩側6個(gè)氣象站1971-2007年逐月氣溫、降水資料,分析了該地區氣候變化趨勢、異常及突變特征。結果表明:喜馬拉雅山脈中段南、北兩側年、季平均氣溫均呈明顯上升趨勢,冬半年升溫幅度大于夏半年。年及夏半年平均氣溫均為隨年代升高趨勢,而冬半年氣溫在20世紀80年代較70年代略偏低,90年代后又逐漸升高。21世紀前7 a升溫最為顯著(zhù),較20世紀70年代升高0.6~1.1℃。1997年該地區南側年平均氣溫發(fā)生突變,突變后增溫趨勢更加明顯。20世紀90年代末以來(lái),異常偏暖年份出現的幾率明顯增加,且南側多于北側。喜馬拉雅山脈中段北側年及冬夏半年降水均呈增多趨勢。南側年和夏半年降水呈減少趨勢,冬半年為增多趨勢。降水異常出現在20世紀80、90年代,21世紀后降水出現異常的概率明顯減少。近40 a,北側氣候具有暖濕化趨勢;南側冬半年與之類(lèi)似,但夏半年及全年呈暖干化趨勢。

      關(guān)鍵詞: 喜馬拉雅山, 氣候變化, 氣溫, 降水

      Abstract: By using the temperature and precipitation data from 6 meteorological stations in the middle Himalayas during 1971-2007, trends, anomalies and abrupt change of climate were analyzed. Remarkable increasing trends of annual and seasonal temperatures were detected in the region, and the rate of warming in winter half year (briefly winter hereafter) was greater than that in summer half year (briefly summer hereafter). Annual and summer temperatures showed an increasing trend on both the south and north sides of the middle Himalayas; winter temperature on the both sides decreased slightly from the 1970s to the 1980s, then gradually increased in the 1990s. For annual and seasonal temperatures, the most significant increasing trend was observed in 2001-2007, when the temperature increment ranged from 0.6 to 1.1℃relative to the 1970s. The abrupt change of annual temperature was observed in 1997 over the south side of the middle Himalayas; the warming trend was more dramatic since 1997. Since the end of the 1990s, the frequency of extreme warm years has obviously increased, especially on the south side. An increasing trend of annual and seasonal precipitation was detected on the north side of the middle Himalayans; an increasing trend was also found in winter on the south side, while a decreasing trend was observed in summer and annual precipitation. Large anomalies in precipitation mainly occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, and its frequency has reduced since the 21st century. In 1971-2007, the annual, seasonal temperature and humidity on the north side increased synchronously, thus showing a warming and wetting trend; the same trend was also found in winter on the south side, while a warming and drying trend was found for summer or the whole year.

      Key words: Himalayas, climate change, temperature, precipitation

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