青藏高原氣候變化及其對水資源影響的研究進(jìn)展

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.247

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

回顧總結了近20年、特別是近10年來(lái)青藏高原氣候變化的特征、變化的原因及其對高原水資源的影響方面的最新研究進(jìn)展。1960年以來(lái)青藏高原地區總體氣溫顯著(zhù)升高，升溫趨勢存在明顯的海拔依賴(lài)性，溫室氣體、冰雪反照率反饋、云-水汽-輻射反饋、局地強迫等是影響高原氣溫上升具有海拔依賴(lài)性的重要因素。總體上青藏高原降水呈現增加趨勢，變化的區域性和季節性差異比氣溫變化的時(shí)空差異更強；降水空間變化主要分為南北偶極型、東西偶極型、中部和邊緣差異型和多元型；夏季降水增加最為顯著(zhù)。受氣候變化和人為氣溶膠排放等影響，青藏高原水資源特別是冰凍圈水資源發(fā)生劇烈的變化，大部分冰川加速退縮、冰川徑流增加、湖泊嚴重擴張，導致青藏高原上水循環(huán)加強和氣候偏暖濕化；青藏高原積雪的變化具有明顯的年代際特征。最后提出未來(lái)需要進(jìn)一步開(kāi)展的研究方向和政策建議。

關(guān)鍵詞: 青藏高原, 氣候變化, 水資源, 影響, 研究進(jìn)展

Abstract:

This article reviews the studies on the characteristics, causes, and impacts of climate change over Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent 20 years, particularly in recent 10 years. Since 1960, the overall temperature over the TP has significantly increased and there is a significant altitude dependence. Greenhouse gases, feedback of ice and snow albedo, and of cloud-water vapor-radiation, as well as the local forcing are important factors affecting the altitude dependence of the TP warming. The precipitation on the TP shows an overall increasing trend, and shows stronger regional and seasonal differences than surface air temperature changes. The spatial variation of precipitation is mainly divided into north-south dipole, east-west dipole, central and marginal difference type, and multivariate type. The most significant precipitation increase occurs in summer. Affected by climate change and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, the water resources especially cryosphere water resources over the TP have undergone drastic changes, including accelerated glacier shrinkage, increased glacier runoff, severe lake expansion, leading to climate warming and humidification. The changes in snow cover on the TP have shown significantly interdecadal variations. Finally, further research and policy recommendations are proposed.

Key words: The Tibetan Plateau, Climate change, Water resources, Impact, Research progress

包文, 段安民, 游慶龍, 胡蝶. 青藏高原氣候變化及其對水資源影響的研究進(jìn)展[J]. 氣候變化研究進(jìn)展, 2024, 20(2): 158-169.

BAO Wen, DUAN An-Min, YOU Qing-Long, HU Die. Research progress on climate change and its impact on water resources over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(2): 158-169.

圖/表 1

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